Spring Turkey Season Forecast
3/1/2019 8:15:13 AM
By Adam Butler
Statewide Forecast
Geographic variation will exist in turkey populations, but most turkey hunters in Mississippi should expect a 2019 spring season that is very similar to their experiences of the past two years. Poult per hen figures, total turkey observations, and jake sightings over the past several years have all remained relatively consistent at the statewide level. Average harvest rates will likely decline slightly in 2019, but the drop will probably not be noticeable to most. Spring weather and regional variability will play a large role in the timing of gobbling activity, but if prior years are any indication, gobbling should peak during the week or so that straddles April 1.
Northeast Forecast
Northeast Mississippi has produced some of the best turkey hunting in the Magnolia State over the last few years, and available data suggests this trend should continue for 2019. Overall turkey observations in 2018 were similar to recent seasons, and jake sightings increased slightly. On a less positive note, summer reproduction in 2018 declined substantially. The combination of these two factors suggests that hunters in this region should expect to see fewer turkeys overall during 2019, but the availability of adult gobblers should still remain near levels enjoyed for the previous few years.
The Delta Forecast
Turkey populations across the Delta landscape have struggled over the last decade due to poor hatches as a result of flooding. However, available data suggests they may have significantly rebounded, especially along the margins of the Mississippi River. The 2019 spring season should prove to be one of the best of the last decade in this region. Readers are cautioned, however, that samples sizes for both the brood and Spring Gobbler Hunting Survey are lower in the Delta than elsewhere in the state and therefore may not accurately reflect the average regional situation. Nonetheless, areas that have produced abundant turkey populations in the past should see significant rebounds in 2019, with a strong juvenile gobbler cohort that may provide quality hunting opportunities for several years to come.
East-Central Forecast
Available data suggests turkey numbers in east-central Mississippi should be similar to slightly below what hunters have experienced over the last few years. Gobbler carry-over across the region appeared good based on the summer survey, suggesting that the birds hunters do encounter will likely be older-age-class. The spring of 2018 proved unusual in that some of the best gobbling activity across the region was withheld until near the season’s closure, however, historical data suggests the third week of the season (29 March – 4 April) should likely prove to be the best week to be in the woods.
Southwest Forecast
Turkey hunters in southwest Mississippi will likely experience a 2019 spring season that will be difficult to gauge. On one hand, the region’s great hatch from last summer should swell turkey numbers across the landscape. While this will provide hope for the future, data suggests a more paltry immediate forecast. Turkey populations in the region have declined for most of the last five years, and jake observation rates in 2018 were low. The combination of these two factors – a great hatch, but poor carry-over from prior years – likely means that hunters in Region 4 will encounter substantially more turkeys this spring, but will still experience fewer opportunities to harvest legal gobblers.
Southeast Piney Woods Forecast
In 2005, Hurricane Katrina devastated much of southeast Mississippi, including some of the region’s best turkey habitat, suppressing turkey populations in the region for much of the last 15 years. Current data suggests south Mississippi hunters may have finally reached the light at the end of that tunnel. Last spring’s jake sightings suggests harvest opportunities in Region 5 should be similar or slightly better than they were in 2018. Meanwhile, a once-in-a-generation hatch during 2018 should significantly boost turkey numbers throughout the region and set the Piney Woods in good standing for several years to come.
